Accurately Identify High Scoring Games Over 80% Of the Time

This is a simple points based method used to find matches that should finish with over 2.5 goals being scored with amazing consistency.

Teams will be awarded points based on their recent home and away form, accurately predicting higher scoring games

1 ) Find any game. For this example I’m using a game from the Premiership between West Ham ( Team 1 ) v Tottenham ( Team 2 )

2) Go to any site where you can find the last five played match statistics for both teams e.g. soccerway.com

3 ) Find how many goals West Ham ( Team 1 ) scored in their last 5 matches. Goals scored at home count as 1.5 points, Goals scored away count as 2 points.

Goals scored at home : 4 goals ( 4 x 1.5 ) = 6 points
Goals scored Away : 3 goals ( 3 x 2 ) = 6 points
Total Goals Scored Points ( 6 + 6 ) = 12 Points

4) Find how many goals West Ham ( Team 1 ) have conceded in the last 5 matches. Goals against at home count at 1.5 points, away from home count as 1 point.

Goals conceded at home : 3 goals ( 3 x 1.5 ) = 4.5 points
Goals conceded Away : 7 goals ( 7 x 1 )7 points
Total Goals Conceded Points ( 4.5 + 7 ) = 11.5 Points

5) Calculate the average value of “points” scored and conceded by West Ham in the last 5 games. Amount of points is divided by the number of matches , in this case 5.

Goals Scored: (12 / 5 ) =2.4 points
Goals Conceded: ( 11.5 / 5 ) = 2.3 points

Do the same with the second team . In our case it Tottenham ( Team 2 )

Goals scored at home : 5 goals ( 5 x 1.5 ) = 7.5 points
Goals scored Away : 2 goals 2 x 2 ) = 4 points
Total Goals Scored Points ( 7.5 + 4 ) = 11.5 points

Goals conceded at home : 6 goals ( 6 x 1.5 ) = 9 points
Goals conceded Away : 7 goals ( 7 x 1 ) = 7 points
Total Goals Conceded Points ( 9 + 7 ) = 16 points

Goals Scored: ( 11.5 / 5 ) = 2.3 points
Goals Conceded: ( 16 / 5 ) = 3.2 points

Now we have the amount of “points” (NOT goals) scored and conceded by both teams. All that’s left to do now is to combine these figures to get a score we can use.

Step 1: Scored Points by West Ham + Points conceded by Tottenham divided by 2
(2.4 + 2.3) / 2 = 2.35 points

Step 2: Conceded Points by West Ham + Points scored by Tottenham divided by 2
(2 + 3.2) / 2 = 2.75 points

STEP 3: Add both values together and divide by 2.
Indicator value = 5.1 (2.35 + 2.75) / 2 = 2.55

If the indicator value is more than 2.5. The match will finish with over 2.5 goals being scored over a 80% of the time.

NOTE (this is important)

This formula is only good for detecting Over 2.5’s and shouldn’t be used for the calculation of under 2.5 goals.


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