Accurately Identify High Scoring Games Over 80% Of the Time
This is a simple points based method used to find matches that should finish with over 2.5 goals being scored with amazing consistency.
Teams will be awarded points based on their recent home and away form, accurately predicting higher scoring games
1 ) Find any game. For this example I’m using a game from the Premiership between West Ham ( Team 1 ) v Tottenham ( Team 2 )
2) Go to any site where you can find the last five played match statistics for both teams e.g. soccerway.com
3 ) Find how many goals West Ham ( Team 1 ) scored in their last 5 matches. Goals scored at home count as 1.5 points, Goals scored away count as 2 points.
Goals scored at home : 4 goals ( 4 x 1.5 ) = 6 pointsGoals scored Away : 3 goals ( 3 x 2 ) = 6 pointsTotal Goals Scored Points ( 6 + 6 ) = 12 Points
4) Find how many goals West Ham ( Team 1 ) have conceded in the last 5 matches. Goals against at home count at 1.5 points, away from home count as 1 point.
Goals conceded at home : 3 goals ( 3 x 1.5 ) = 4.5 pointsGoals conceded Away : 7 goals ( 7 x 1 ) = 7 pointsTotal Goals Conceded Points ( 4.5 + 7 ) = 11.5 Points
5) Calculate the average value of “points” scored and conceded by West Ham in the last 5 games. Amount of points is divided by the number of matches , in this case 5.
Goals Scored: (12 / 5 ) =2.4 pointsGoals Conceded: ( 11.5 / 5 ) = 2.3 points
Do the same with the second team . In our case it Tottenham ( Team 2 )
Goals scored at home : 5 goals ( 5 x 1.5 ) = 7.5 pointsGoals scored Away : 2 goals ( 2 x 2 ) = 4 pointsTotal Goals Scored Points ( 7.5 + 4 ) = 11.5 points
Goals conceded at home : 6 goals ( 6 x 1.5 ) = 9 pointsGoals conceded Away : 7 goals ( 7 x 1 ) = 7 pointsTotal Goals Conceded Points ( 9 + 7 ) = 16 points
Goals Scored: ( 11.5 / 5 ) = 2.3 pointsGoals Conceded: ( 16 / 5 ) = 3.2 points
Now we have the amount of “points” (NOT goals) scored and conceded by both teams. All that’s left to do now is to combine these figures to get a score we can use.
Step 1: Scored Points by West Ham + Points conceded by Tottenham divided by 2(2.4 + 2.3) / 2 = 2.35 points
Step 2: Conceded Points by West Ham + Points scored by Tottenham divided by 2(2 + 3.2) / 2 = 2.75 points
STEP 3: Add both values together and divide by 2.Indicator value = 5.1 (2.35 + 2.75) / 2 = 2.55
If the indicator value is more than 2.5. The match will finish with over 2.5 goals being scored over a 80% of the time.
NOTE (this is important)
This formula is only good for detecting Over 2.5’s and shouldn’t be used for the calculation of under 2.5 goals.
