Rated Runners Horse Racing System

“Unlock Consistent Success in Horse Racing Betting with Our Powerful Rating Method – Averaging 60 Winning Horses Weekly!”

Predicting the winner of a horse race is not easy and not exact science, if it was everyone would be able to make money. There are so many variable factors that it would be unrealistic to suggest that the winner could be accurately selected in every single race. Factors such as form, going, the jockey, the tempo, the conditions, whether or not the horse is having an off day, whether it is fully fit etc. all play a major part in determining the outcome of a race.

It is therefore only possible to determine the horse with the most probable chance of winning based upon the facts and figures available to the average person i.e. those details published in the daily newspapers and online.

Having spent hundreds of hours analysing tens of thousands of horse races I believe I have a formula that I consider to be the one of the best ways of rating horses around — that is the factors that a winning horse is most likely to possess.

The ratings are concentrated on 5 main criteria;

  • Form
  • Fitness
  • Proven ability
  • Age
  • Weight

Form
Form is the most influencing factor. 65% of all races are won by horses that finished in the first 6 last time out. My figures suggest that a horse that had won its previous race is more likely to win than a horse that finished for example 3rd in its last outing. And a horse that finished 3rd in its last race was more likely to win than a horse that had finished 6th. These facts will probably not astound you and common sense tells us that this should be the case. However it is how much more likely is the horse to win that should concern us.

The horse that finished 1st last time out is 1.45 times more likely to win than the horse that finished 3rd. A horse that finished 3rd is 2.16 times more likely to win than the horse finishing 6th.

These figures alone don’t have much real meaning. However when assigned a rating as I’ve done so in the formula and coupled with the other factors they become a fairly powerful tool.

Fitness
Horses that run within 28 days of their previous outing tend to win 66% of all races. Obviously if more than one or even all the horses in the race were running within 28 days then this figure does not have much meaning. However I found that horses running within 8-14 days of a previous outing have the highest chance of success followed by those running 15-21 days after their previous outing.

Proven Ability
Horses that have previously won at the distance they are running tend to win 35% of all races. Similarly those horses that have previously won at the course tend to win 16% of all races.

Age
Quite simply certain ages of horse fair better than others. This may seem quite logical as the younger an animal is the quicker it is likely to be and the older one gets the slower it will become.

Weight
This should be the most determining factor of any horse race. After all, put a ton weight on a horses back and it won’t move. Put a feather on its back and it might even fly! Unfortunately it isn’t as simple as that. Horses will be assigned a weight that is either based on their age or their ability. In handicap races the horses are weighted so that in theory they should all cross the line together. However time and again a horse carrying top weight seems to brush aside the challenge of the bottom weight — simply because it has the ability to do so. Therefore, although weights play a big part in determining the outcome of a race they must be used in line with the rest of the formula.

The Formula
To use the formula is quite straightforward, however can be a little time consuming ( But worth it ) To assign a rating to a horse start at the first one on the race card and work down.

Form
Concentrate on the previous 3 form figures for the current season only. If the horse has finished either 6th or higher last time out then assign it the corresponding rating. Do the same for the 2nd last time out, and then the same for the 3rd last. For example if the horse has won all 3 of its races then it is assigned 150 points i.e. 50 for each win. If it finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively then it is given 45 points for finishing 2nd, 30 points for finishing 3rd and 19 points for finishing 5th — a total of 94 points.

If the horse has only run once in the current season then it can only be rated on the one run. If it has not been out at all or of it has never run before then it is not given any points at all.

One exception to this is that as there is very little ‘close’ season these days for National Hunt horses — in late April, when the ‘new’ season commences and until the 1st July following it is necessary to use the previous form figures for the purposes of the formula as long as the horse had run within the last 100 days.

For example a horse running on May 5th may be having its first run of the ‘new’ season. However, because it had only run for example 65 days ago then the last 2 form figures from the previous season should be used for rating purposes.

This also applies to horses running on the Flat after January (the start of the ‘new’ season). Until the end of March, any horse that has had a run within the previous 100 days should be assessed using its last 2 form figures.

Horses disqualified from first, second or third place in any of their previous 3 outings should be treated as if they had actually finished in that position. Those disqualified from any other position should be treated as finishing last. Horses relegated or those who have had their positions reversed in any of their previous 3 outings should be assessed using the amended positions to determine their ratings.

Occasionally horses run under National Hunt rules having previously raced on the flat and vice versa. The only form that can be applied is that which relates to the race currently being rated. For example a horse having had 3 previous outings on the flat and now racing over hurdles is only rated on any previous National Hunt form (hurdles or steeplechases). Similarly a horse having previously raced under National Hunt rules and now running on the flat is only rated on any previous flat form.

Course Winner
If the horse has previously won at the course it is assigned the appropriate number of points. Only one set of points is awarded no matter how many times it has won at that course.

Distance Winner
If the horse has previously won at the distance then it is assigned the appropriate number of points. Again only one set of points is awarded regardless of the number of times won at the particular distance.

Course & Distance Winner
If the horse has previously won at the course and at the same distance then it is assigned the appropriate number of points. If a horse is a C & D then the course and distance points will not be added individually. Only the C & D winner points will be added

Fitness
If the horse is running within 28 days of its previous outing it is assigned the appropriate number of points. If running after 29 days or more or not having had a previous outing then no points are awarded. This applies to horses running under Flat rules having previously raced under national Hunt rules and vice versa.

Age
Points are assigned depending on the age of the horse.

Weight
Points are assigned depending on the weight carried by the horse. This includes extra weight as a result of a penalty for a recent win but does not include apprentice jockey’s allowances. Therefore if a horse is assigned to carry 10-12 and has been given a 3lbs extra penalty it will now be carrying 11-1 and should be rated as such. However, a horse assigned to carry 11 -3 and has an apprentice jockey on board claiming 5lbs in allowances should still be treated as carrying the original weight and not the allowance.

Finally

  • If there are joint top-rated or second top-rated horses, the horse or horses carrying the highest weight are given an extra point.

  • If there are still equally rated horses then the horse that ran the least days ago is given another point.

  • If there are still equally rated horses then the one with the highest finishing position last time out gains another point.

  • If this still leaves one or more horses on the same rating then any distance winner is given another point.

  • If there is still no clear horse then a previous course winner is given a further point.

  • Finally if there is still no clear horse then the youngest horse is given one more point. No further criteria is used to determine a top or second top-rated horse.

Rated Runner Formula

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