Discover a simple method that’ll stop you from overlooking a very common occurrence that can produce misleading data and bets.
Unfortunately, many football rating systems overlook this common occurrence and this can produce misleading data. Consider the following scenario over the first eight matches of a season:
|Won = 5||Won = 5|
|Drawn = 2||Drawn = 2|
|Lost = 1||Lost = 1|
Now, although a typical football rating system would indicate a probable draw because both teams have identical form, it wouldn’t necessarily highlight the fact that Manchester Utd have won five of their last six matches whilst Everton have won only three of the last six.
In other words, despite the identical appearance of the basic form data, one team is enjoying a winning streak whilst the other is suffering a losing one.
The Six Match Prediction Formula
The aim of the six-match prediction formula is to give a reliable forecast of any given match based on both data analysis and the sequential pattern of results. It is quick and simple to execute, but as effective as most other forecasting techniques when it comes to selecting the matches which are most likely to result in draws.
To use the formula, obtain a copy of the Racing and Football Outlook or Racing Post and turn to the match-by-match data Section. Here you will find information presented something like this:
The string of initials underneath each team signifies the results of the last six matches played, with the latest result being on the right. You can now analyse these matches by assigning a numerical value to each letter and creating a rating which is based on this previous performance.
To do this, award 1 point for each win, 0 points for each draw and -1 point for each loss. Our ratings would therefore be as follows:
|Manchester Utd||0 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 5|
|Everton||1 + 1 + 1 – 1 + 10 + 0 = 2|
The best way of assigning a result to data produced using the above method is to calculate the advantage (in points) which the home team has over the away team. Manchester United’s advantage would therefore be three points (5-2 = 3), but if the roles were reversed and Everton had been awarded the superior rating, the advantage would be minus three points (2-5 = -3).
The highest advantage a team can have is + 12 points. This would occur when the home team has won six out of six matches and the away team has lost six out of six. The lowest advantage of -12 points would occur when this situation is reversed.
Once you have calculated the advantage rating for the home team, check it against the table below to discover the most probable result:
|Advantage||Most Probable Result|
|5+ to 12+||Very Likely Home Win|
|2+ to 4+||Home Win|
|-2 to 1+||Draw|
|-5 to -3||Away Win|
|-12 to -6||Very Likely Away Win|
I’ve included a natural ‘weighting factor’ to allow for the fact that it is statistically more difficult for a team to win away than it is to win when playing at home.
Using The Six Match Formula
The six-match prediction formula can either be used on its own or as one important element in a multi-tool arrangement. Taking the second route, you would analyse the weekly matches using several different formulas and only bet on those matches on which all formulas agree. Although this will dramatically reduce the number of matches which you are able to use, it should be a considerably more effective proposition than just using one formula in isolation